Utah's local Economist, who has been proven accurate in past statements, speaks about today's economy. The past couple of years I have been following Kelly Matthew's market predictions. As a testament to his knowledge of local market fluctuations, Wells Fargo has been able to weather the economic storm better than most other financial institutions by using his predictions. 2 years ago, Kelly said prices for Utah's housing would have to come down. In January of last year he said it looked like the inevitable was happenening and predicted that 2009 would be a bottom. Recently Kelly Matthews spoke, with another Wells Fargo Investment Strategist, about the current market. You can find the full article here on KSL.com
What did they say?
It looks like we've hit a housing bottom and it also looks like there is a prime recipe for economic recovery. It is truly amazing that right now there are almost 2,000 homes 'pending' to be sold in Salt Lake County. This is the highest amount of homes pending I have seen in the past 2 years. Historically the 4th quarter is one of the slowest quarters of the year. It is truly a phenomenon when the 4th quarter could be the biggest quarter of the year. Utah County has already had almost 10% more homes sales this year than the year before. Salt Lake County looks like it might be the same or even slightly better than last year. New home construction is up 30% from last year as well. Things are looking good!
What is next?
If supply stays the same, and if demand truly has picked up, prices are the next thing to move up. That is Ceteris Paribus of course (the term for 'all other things remaining constant'). The only forseeable variables right now are the option arm's coming due and if the loan mods stick. If the loan mods start falling through than we could continue to see good deals next year. We will also see low prices next year if option arms start to be foreclosed on. Either way, we are currently seeing the good deals go fast and sell for more because of the increased demand. There are still some areas that are slower than others and some areas that are stronger than others, but the overall nature of the market is increasing. You can evaluate how specific areas are doing by looking at our statistics here: Utah Area Statistics .
Here's to 2009!!
